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PAUL KENNEDY
2/3/03
EDITORS: We are releasing this Paul Kennedy early in light of its
timeliness and U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell's scheduled talk at
the United Nations on Wednesday.
INSTEAD OF BOMBING SADDAM, WHY NOT TRY LILLIPUTING HIM?
There exists a third option between war and appeasement
By Paul Kennedy
To Lilliput someone is not, I think, a term that appears in any
English-language dictionary, but its meaning is fairly clear. It derives
from one of the most famous adventure tales of all time. When Jonathan
Swifts hapless hero Gulliver is washed up on the shore of the
mysterious island of Lilliput, he wakes to find his arms and legs, and
even his hair, have been bound by ropes, so that he is unable to rise.
All he can do is look helplessly upward, seeing nothing but the sky.
I thought of Gullivers fate this past weekend because at various events
-- after Sunday Mass, at a wedding anniversary -- I was pressed time and
again by well-meaning and worried Americans with a single question, Is
there anything that can be done to avoid a war? None of them holds that
Saddams regime is anything other than a very evil one, or assert that
he can be ignored. All are deeply patriotic. But they are also worried
at signs that this country is about to embark upon a military crusade
that may result in unintended consequences, and they are desperate to
learn of some middle way between war and appeasement. So I offered them
what might be called the Lilliputian solution, a graceless term, but
one to the point. Here it is:
Imagine that a group of Security Council members propose a new set of
resolutions regarding the crisis, roughly on the following lines:
Resolved that:
Considering the evidence that Iraq has not fully and openly complied
with U.N. Security Council resolution 1441, the Council resolves to
request the International Atomic Energy Authority forthwith to (ITALIC)
quintuple (END ITALIC) the number of inspection teams; and to establish
a national inspection headquarters in Baghdad and regional inspection
offices until such time as the Council judges them to be unnecessary.
The Council further requires that the government of Iraq permit the
inspections to occur without hindrance, wherever and whenever the IAEA
teams judge appropriate, and reaffirms the language of Resolution 1441
should Iraq fail to comply.
Considering the many reports of human rights abuses in Iraq, the
Council requests the U.N. High Commissioner on Human Rights, and all
other bodies which in the opinion of the UNHCR can contribute to this
mission, to establish in Baghdad a national office, along with an
appropriate number of regional offices in the rest of Iraq, with a view
to investigating and reporting all and any human rights abuses that have
occurred or may be occurring; and that the teams and offices involved in
this mission be accorded by the government of Iraq the same freedom of
movement and inspection as those accorded to the IAEA inspectorate.
Considering the many reports of malnutrition among the women and
children of Iraq, the Council requests the U.N. Development Programme
forthwith to coordinate with UNICEF, with the U.N. Food Programme and
with all other appropriate U.N. bodies that report to the General
Assembly, with a view to establishing a network of relief offices for
the distribution of food and medical supplies throughout Iraq, and later
for agricultural and related development programmes; that the UNDP be
encouraged to invite the World Bank to contribute its expertise; and
also to invite and supervise appropriate non-governmental organizations,
charities and church groups offering expert assistance in this mission,
as it deems fit. And, further, that all such teams and offices be
accorded by the Government of Iraq the same freedom of movement and
operation as those of the IAEA.
Considering the many reports of hazardous environmental conditions in
Iraq, the Council requests the U.N. Environmental Programme forthwith to
prepare and enact a nationwide inspection of all and any environmentally
dangerous sites and projects, as well as of badly affected areas; and,
to the same end, to establish a national office in Baghdad and such
regional offices as may be deemed necessary; and, further to that end,
to invite and work with all and any appropriate international
environmental monitoring bodies, scientific associations and NGOs that
can bring expertise to this mission. And, further, that all such teams
and offices and inspections be accorded by the Government of Iraq the
same freedom of movement and operation as those accorded to the IAEA.
Considering the importance of returning Iraq to the international
community and to repairing its economy, the Council invites the
International Monetary Fund to establish a team of experts to
investigate and prepare a report on the complete economic and social
condition of Iraq; to considering requesting the World Bank, the UNDP
and other appropriate U.N. bodies to assist in this investigation and
report; and to work closely with all appropriate Iraqi governmental
ministries, who are required by this resolution to offer all requested
data, and to accord this IMF Mission the same freedom of movement ,
inspection and operation as those accorded to the IAEA.
Any and all breaches of these freedoms of inspection and movement by
members of U.N. and related bodies operating in Iraq shall be
immediately reported by the agency responsible to the Secretary-General,
who is charged with bringing the matter to the attention of the Security
Council forthwith, with a view to implementing the measures authorized
in Resolution 1441.
Finally, the Council requests the Secretary-General, in consultation
with the President of the General Assembly and all the U.N. and
specialized agencies mentioned above, to compose a collective budget,
and to assess Members contributions according the formulae of the
regular U.N. budget.
Of course the U.N.s own expert drafters and senior diplomats would find
many technical faults in the above text. But the overall idea merits
serious consideration. I was inclined to go further and insert a clause
requesting the Secretary-Generals Office to prepare a plan for free and
open elections, but until the various Iraqi parties request such help,
that would go against Article 2, 7 of the Charter and make the Chinese
very uneasy about too great an intervention in the affairs of a member.
Still, it is hard to see Beijing vetoing Security Council resolutions
that call for sending UNICEF or the UNDP to help the women and children
of Iraq.
Were this to be implemented, and swiftly, the nasty regime of the
Gulliver of Baghdad would be tied down by an unbelievable number of
ropes and knots, with personnel from U.N. agencies and other
international organizations setting up offices in the capital and
literally crisscrossing the country to regional offices, inspection
sites and meetings with local officials, educators, scientists, and
tribal representatives.
It would be inconceivable to imagine that under such circumstances a
tied-down Saddam could restart any hidden programs to develop weapons of
mass destruction.
It would be impossible for him to claim that women and children were
starving.
It would difficult to maintain hideous abuses of human rights upon the
regimes opponents if teams of UNHCR inspectors were abroad in the land.
It would be impossible to maintain the veil of secrecy over the regimes
finances if an IMF team could request and see everything (including
capital flows for arms purchases).
Moreover, this is not a quick-in-and-out operation. It could be
conducted for years if necessary, and at a cost well below that of a
military campaign against Baghdad.
By doing this, the world community would totally and imaginatively call
Saddams bluff. In fact, rather like Gulliver himself in another story,
Saddam would be between the devil and the deep blue sea. He could order
his officials and people to comply fully and openly, and without
exception, with all of the U.N. teams -- which would be perfectly
delightful since the Iraqi people would at last be to speak and operate
without fear. Observing the benefits of being returned to the world
community, they would be likely soon to call for free elections; and if
there were such, one doubts that Saddam would get the 99 percent vote he
received last year. If, in fact, U.S. hawks are so right and Saddam is
unpopular (but feared), then we would have regime change all right,
but one carried out peacefully and not by the 101st Airborne Division.
What could be more congenial -- except to those who truly want a war?
Saddam could, of course, refuse a new Security Council resolution or, as
a variant of that, produce so many violations that were then reported
back to New York that it would be clear that he was in non-compliance.
In that case, a U.N. peace-enforcement operation, delegated to the
United States to lead and organize, would be within its rights to carry
out whatever military actions its commanders deemed necessary -- in
other words, to implement the sort of military operation that is being
finalized right now.
But there would be a world of difference. Saddam would have lost all
world support. Wavering neutrals like Germany, Saudi Arabia and the
others would be relieved. France, Russia and China would be pleased that
the status of the Security Council had been confirmed. Tony Blair would
be off the hook at home. Finally, I would guess that concerned Americans
who ask, What can be done to deal with Saddam, but without a rush to
war? would sleep happier in their beds.
Is such a Lilliputian Solution too late? Perhaps. But perhaps not. It
will all depend on our political leaders -- and the democracies that
vote them into power -- to make that decision. But they havent much
time.
Paul Kennedy is the Dilworth Professor of History at Yale
University, and the author/editor of 15 books, including The Rise and
Fall of the Great Powers.
© Tribune Media Services International. For immediate release
(Distributed 2/3/03)
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